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Περί Συνεργατισμού

Posted by on June 19th, 2017 - 3 Comments
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Τον Απρίλιο του 2011 είχα γράψει ένα άρθρο για τους κινδύνους και το πιθανό κόστος που υπάρχει από τον τρόπο λειτουργίας και εποπτείας των Συνεργατικών Πιστωτικών Ιδρυμάτων (ΣΠΙ). Αντιγράφω: «Τα ΣΠΙ αναζωογονούν τον ανταγωνισμό στην τοπική αγορά αλλά αυτή η αναζωογόνηση δυστυχώς μπορεί να έρχεται με κάποιο κόστος.  Οι μέτοχοι των ΣΠΙ είναι οι ίδιοι οι καταθέτες τους.  Άρα ο ηθικός κίνδυνος από την κρατική ασφάλεια των καταθέσεων είναι ακόμη μεγαλύτερος απ’ ότι στις τράπεζες. read more…

Private debt is the problem

Posted by on June 6th, 2017 - 10 Comments
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Why the economic recovery of Cyprus remains an elusive and distant dream

Cyprus suffers from a developing acute case of what Richard Koo (Koo, 2015) has coined as Balance Sheet Recession. This means that because of the excessive and quite unprecedented levels of private debt (3 to 4 times the size of the country’s GDP) weighing on households and corporations, it is practically impossible for the country to overcome the recessionary effects of the austerity conditions that were imposed since the bail-in in 2013 and which still constitute the core of the Government policy.

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Bankers’ Alert: Bloom or Wither? Revolutionise or Rationalise?

Posted by on June 2nd, 2017 - 2 Comments
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PART C

Revolutionary Quantum Leaps

We have seen how the instinctive banking aversion of risk and the deeply ingrained rigidities of conventional banking routines may stall banks’ progress, by deterring them from taking the quantum leaps that are needed to truly get them back to the road of recovery.

True, certain banks are ahead of others on the quest to recovery.  True, certain banks have begun to explore more revolutionary ways of harnessing the NPL beast.  read more…

Bankers’ Alert: Bloom or Wither? Revolutionise or Rationalise?

Posted by on June 1st, 2017 - 7 Comments
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PART B

A Banking Revolution may open up Possibilities

To put everything in perspective in a nutshell, it doesn’t seem likely that the NPLs stock will be worked down to manageable, and economically sustainable, levels any time soon, via conventional and rationalised management.  It doesn’t seem at all likely, either, that large portions of debt can be sold off at prices which would not jeopardise banks’ solvency, at least in the foreseeable future.  And the pressures are, and will keep on, mounting.  To re-cap: read more…

Bankers’ Alert: Bloom or Wither? Revolutionise or Rationalise?

Posted by on May 26th, 2017 - 11 Comments
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Part A

The Stagnation of Banking Conventionalism

There is a well-known axiom in the financial world which stipulates that no banking system, and as a matter of fact, no economy, can survive with non-performing loan (NPL) figures over fifty percent, as is the case in Cyprus; yes, they are stubbornly well over 50% when governmental and non-financial corporations are excluded!

And there is another well-known axiom which says that “as you sow, so shall you reap”.  read more…

Cyprus: Lack of adjustment of household sector

Posted by on May 16th, 2017 - 5 Comments
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An analysis of the results of the Eurosystem’s Household Finance and Consumption Surveys (HFCS) reveals how Cyprus households and their counterparts in certain other financially distressed Euro area countries have been affected by and responded to their financial crises.

According to the first wave results of the HFCS centered on 2009/2010 Cyprus households entered the crisis years of 2012 and 2013 with relatively high levels of real and financial assets, well in excess of the Euro area averages. read more…

Reforming local government finances in Cyprus

Posted by on April 27th, 2017 - 17 Comments
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The local authorities in Cyprus have been in financial difficulties for many years and have been funded in part by the government via the annual grant. The grant is a source of funds that is allocated to municipalities based on their size and to the willingness of central government to continue to provide such assistance; it is not an obligation under the constitution or by legislation. The annual grant as is currently administered and decided is wholly insufficient and cannot be the basis of promoting healthier local government which every modern EU state has committed to institutionalise. read more…

Το…. μποτιλιάρισμα της κυπριακής οικονομίας

Posted by on April 20th, 2017 - 1 Comment
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Η κυπριακή οικονομία μοιάζει, μεταφορικά, με αυτοκινητόδρομο ταχείας κυκλοφορίας ο οποίος είναι ασφυκτικά συνωστισμένος με χρήστες τεσσάρων ταχυτήτων:

(1) συνεπείς και νομοταγείς οδηγοί με οχήματα που δεν αντιμετωπίζουν οποιαδήποτε προβλήματα (με χαρακτηριστικά που, μεταφορικά, προσομοιάζουν στους «υγιείς και βιώσιμους δανειολήπτες»),

(2) οδηγοί που παρουσιάζουν κάποια μηχανολογικά προβλήματα, μικρότερου ή read more…

A Cypriot’s vision for Cyprus

Posted by on March 31st, 2017 - 9 Comments
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On March 19th 2017 Mr Cavusoglu, Turkey’s minister of foreign affairs, laid out his government’s vision for Cyprus: “transforming the island into a bastion of peace, stability, co-operation and economic prosperity.” As a (Greek) Cypriot, I share that same vision.  Unfortunately, Mr Cavusoglu’s article did not convince me.  Rather than propose ways to build lasting peace where Greeks and Turks live together in Cyprus as equals, his approach is designed to ensure increased control of Cyprus by Turkey. This will not allay Greek Cypriots’ fears and will stoke their sense of injustice. His proposal does not map a way forward for the island to be united. read more…

Οι οριζόντιες αυξήσεις και μειώσεις μισθών είναι λανθασμένες

Posted by on March 21st, 2017 - 17 Comments
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Όταν έπρεπε να επιβληθούν μέτρα για μείωση των δημόσιων εξόδων το 2013, η οριζόντια μείωση ήταν η λύση που ευκολότερα μπορούσε να επιβληθεί. Η οριζόντια μείωση είναι η μείωση σε όλους τους μισθούς με ένα συγκεκριμένο ποσοστό (πχ 10%). Μερικές φορές υπάρχει λιγότερη μείωση για τους χαμηλότερα αμειβόμενους υπαλλήλους για θεμιτούς λόγους ανακατανομής εισοδήματος.  Σαν μέτρο άμεσο για την αντιμετώπιση της πιθανής χρεωκοπίας του κράτους, η οριζόντια μείωση μισθών δεν είναι κακό μέτρο από την άποψη ότι όταν το κράτος φθάσει στο χείλος του γκρεμού δεν υπάρχει η πολυτέλεια για συζητήσεις. read more…